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Tense Markets: highlighting the likelihood of Russia invading

Originally published on State Street Global Markets | Insights by Noel Dixon


February 15, 2022


High Stakes: The White House rang the alarm last Friday highlighting the likelihood of Russia invading Ukraine in a matter of days.


Financial markets were certainly impacted according to MediaStats Narrative Map. Using a start date of June 2021, the scatterplot shows a standardized media intensity value (x-axis) and the degree to which the International Conflict narrative explains market movement ( y-axis). The last seven days (red dots) show high media attention, but not extreme, while exceptionally high R2 confirming that risks surrounding the Ukraine/Russia conflict is a main driver for markets at the moment.


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