US Elections: Investing Amid Political Risk
A research collaboration between State Street Global Advisors (SSgA), State Street Global Markets (SSGM), and MKT MediaStats.
By Daniel Ung, Elliot Hentov, Anthi Tsouvali, Shankar Abburu, Gideon Ozik, and Noel Dixon
Polls suggest the general mood in the US is gloomy and the electorate disapproving Trump on many key election issues, according to RealClearPolitics. Media sentiment suggests that Trump is losing ground against Biden both in the entire country and in key swing states.
There is some evidence that sectors (particularly Tech) appear to be more sensitive around the election date than cap factors and smart beta.
Investors seem to position their portfolios cautiously before elections and only venture slowly back to equities afterwards.
Macro momentum, rather than the current state of the economy, is likely to be important in the election and Trump is currently trailing past re-election winners on key indicators.
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